December 2015

GDP, Peak Debt, and Fed Tightening

Submitted by Wespac Advisors, LLC on December 23rd, 2015

It is important to understand the overall environment that has evolved since the 2008 Crisis in terms of economic growth, debt growth, and interest rates; it is this overall view that is the most important context to the Fed’s new tightening program, and the perspective that nobody wants to talk about.

Market Update - December 21, 2015

Submitted by Wespac Advisors, LLC on December 22nd, 2015

The Federal Reserve is late in starting a tightening cycle; this presents the world with yet another unknowable scenario where the U.S.

Putting 3Q15 Earnings in Perspective

Submitted by Wespac Advisors, LLC on December 22nd, 2015

At the beginning of 2015, consensus was for S&P 500 operating earnings to reach around $130/share, or 15% higher than 2014.
2015 S&P 500 operating earnings are now forecast to be just $106/share based on a forecast of a 14% QoQ jump in earnings in 4Q15.
Even with this dramatic forecast for a jump in 4Q15 earnings, 2015 will be the first year-over-year drop in

Narrow Markets are Dangerous

Submitted by Wespac Advisors, LLC on December 22nd, 2015

Of the 9 major sectors that comprise the S&P 500, only 4 outperformed the S&P 500 in 2015 — Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Technology. These sectors contribute about 59% of S&P 500′s operating earnings.
Of the other 5 sectors, 4 significantly underperformed the S&P 500, which is down about -1% YTD — Energy

Sideways

Submitted by Wespac Advisors, LLC on December 18th, 2015

The S&P 500 has been trading in a wide 250 point range since May 2014
Up until June 2015, the trend was clearly up as we saw a progression of higher highs and a 200-day EMA with a consistent positive slope
The summer volatility in the index has turn the 200-day EMA slope negative, and, despite a run near the all-time highs in October, the 200-day EMA has not been

Market Risks Increasing

Submitted by Wespac Advisors, LLC on December 11th, 2015

Market risk has risen substantially over the past month. October’s reflex rally was driven substantially by an apparent basing in the energy markets, the subsidence of concerns surrounding China’s economic situation, and the lack of action by the US Federal Reserve. The energy markets have again destabilized over the past month, concerns about emerging markets and

GDP, Peak Debt, and Fed Tightening

Market Update - December 21, 2015

Putting 3Q15 Earnings in Perspective

Narrow Markets are Dangerous

Sideways

Market Risks Increasing

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December 2015

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