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• Since 1995, the crossover of the 12-month EMA and the 20-month EMA have been reliable indicators of trend; while not perfect timing indicator for tops and bottoms, following this simple metric would keep investors on the right side of the trend.   Of course, there is no way to know whether this will hold true in the current cycle.
• The S&P 500 has only traded below

 “Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.”

- Alice in Wonderland

• The S&P 500 has been submerged with a fairly negative trend setup since the August selloff, experiencing the death cross of the 50-day below its 200-day and trading below the important longer-term 12-month and 20-month EMAs.
• Recent price action had the appearance of a bottom, but the S&P 500 became mired in a volatile sideways trading range since August 21rst, fail